By Tim Condon, Tampa PC Users Group
tim@free-market.net

I know, I know: The imminent demise of paper-and all that we read on it-has not only been greatly exaggerated, but wrongly proclaimed just about every year for the past decade. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean it ain’t gonna happen.

There will come a time, I am firmly convinced, when the developed world will stand on the edge of a precipice. A little nudge, or even a flinch, will be enough to push us over into the abyss...whereupon we spread our collective wings and fly off into another reality. So to speak! Think about when the Mediterranean Sea was a basin (presumably the lost city of Atlantis nested there somewhere) empty of water. The problem was, lo those umpteen zillion years ago, most of the basin was below sea level. Not to worry: A “plug” at the entrance to the valley, at what is now the Straits of Gibraltar, kept the water from the Atlantic out.

Or at least it did until there was a little nudge or a flinch. Probably from a pterodactyl who inadvertently landed. Just when things were ready. Just when the plug was ready to disintegrate. And a helluva waterfall resulted. (Talk about rising water tables!)

But I digress, right? What the hell does all this babbling have to do with The End of Paper? Just this: We’re on a cusp kind of like that right now. It’s not physical, like that ancient sea, but it’s just as staggering and world-changing. I refer, ahem (roll of drums), to the real imminent death of paper.

And I think I’ve found the implement that’s going to make it happen.

But first a look at the duds that have gone before: Ebook reading devices. From the Ebookman to the REB 1200 to the Franklin Ebook, they’re all attempted hustles either by the book publishing companies or in cooperation with them. They all include draconian restrictions on ebook format and/or what you can copy and/or where you can get it from, etc. Stupid, stupid, stupid. But that’s the nature of the beast when you’re threatening the extinction of an entire and well-established industry. The book publishing conglomerates, like the music recording industry, isn’t going to go away easily. They’ll kick and bite and scratch and try to use governmental power and threats and various kinds of extortion and blackmail...and anything else they can come up with to stave off the inevitable.

Then there are the tablet computer people. Failure after failure. Everyone trying to protect their precious profit margins, everyone thinking that way to make a mint is to set prices so high that only the top 1% of the population would want to buy such toys. Even today, check out most of the prices. For a simple reading appliance that will connect to the Internet-with a wire is even fine-they march off across your eyeballs: $1,900 (the Flair web tablet). $1,500 (the SIMpad SL4). $1,650 (Honeywell’s Web PAD II). $1,600 (the PenCentra 200). $1,500 (the Acknowledger CE). These barking dogs go on forever. There are plenty of others. Almost all over $1,000.

And then there’s the much-anticipated Microsoft Tablet Computer, a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist. I’ll stick my neck out and predict it will be a huge flop. Costs too much. Doesn’t do what we need it to do. Or rather, does more than we need it to (which is in part what drives the price up so). And besides, the job’s already taken by the desktop and laptop computer.

Look, this isn’t rocket science. Let’s tick off what we’re facing, what we’ve got, and where we need to go. All knowledge-and I mean all knowledge-has either already migrated or is in the process of migrating onto the Internet. How could it be otherwise? We human beings are evolutionarily bred to share knowledge. It’s how we survive. It’s what we do. It’s an instinct, if you will, and a powerful one at that. What’s the most revolutionary, most extraordinary way of sharing knowlege? The Internet? No. The written word. Then comes moveable type, Gutenberg, mass-produced paperbacks, general literacy (in that order), and romance novels (my favorite).

It all takes paper, right? Well not anymore. Because of the Internet. Electronics and the written word. Simple, right? Not! Why not? Because the dummies in the computer industry haven’t yet been able to put two-and-two together, in order to give the entire world what it’s been waiting for: A simple, useable, lightweight implement that can be used for TWO THINGS, okay? One, surf the Internet and read, you dummies. And second, handle email (and even that’s not an absolute requirement; I’m talking about destroying just about the entire book and magazine publishing industries, so a mere “Internet reader” will suffice, thank you).

What is holding us back? A giant conspiracy by the printed-word publishing conglomerates to save their industry? Nah! A holding action while government can figure something out to stop all that free knowledge from flowing and sloshing around everywhere? Go on! No, it’s just...lack of foresight.

A couple of years ago I had a huge argument with the CEO of a company that was on the verge of “doing it right” with an ebook reading device. But for some reason he was stuck-stuck!-on the idea of a “codex” electronic reader. That is, not a “tablet” but a thing that is hinged in the middle and “opens.” A book, in other words. Look, I said, at least slap a couple of engineers on it and implement a simple alternative, a tablet, even if it’s only secondary and an afterthought. No, no, he wouldn’t hear of it. If they’d put out my damned tablet reader at the time, by now they’d be as big as Microsoft. Or some behemoth like that.

But noooooooo! He wouldn’t listen. And so the death of paper...and the death of the printed-word publishing industry...remains only a fond dream (think of all those trees we’ll save!). But wait! Wait, wait, wait, wait!

Now I espy a bunch of hippie-sounding guys who...are...actually ...Putting. It. Together. I can’t for the life of me understand why no one’s done it yet. But there it is, and here they are, as of April 9, 2002. Out they pop from their stealth-mode cubicles or wherever, and simply...say it. Why ask why? Why are they developing their “information appliance” (that will cost under $700)? Well, duh: “We found there was an incredible opportunity to take advantage of a glaring hole in the marketplace.” Get that: “Glaring hole.” Now that’s an understatement.

These guys are called DOT Design Technologies. They hail from (where else) northern California not far from Silicon Valley (San Mateo, to be exact). And they’re about to Get It Right. It’s called the “X-tend information appliance” (see what I mean about “information” being the key?), and it’s the brainchild of a guy named Todd Shafer. It’s based upon an “open platform” concept, and - get this - it uses Linux as its operating system (no Microsoft straightjacket!).

The X-tend is going to have a 10.4 inch touch-sensitive screen, and it will connect to the Internet through any of a number of different methods, including 802.11 wireless, Ethernet cable, dual USB, etc. Oddly enough, it also will be able to run your entire entertainment center (as in, replace all those remotes for the TV, the VCR, the DVD, the stereo, the CD-ROM changer, etc.).

But wait! There’s still a chance to kill the thing! (Calling Barnes & Noble, calling Borders!) Shafer only has this little beast in the “virtual prototype” stage. And he’s looking for funding to complete the prototyping and release it into the world. (Calling Harper/Collins, calling Bertelsmann, calling Simon & Schuster, calling Random House!) So this should be interesting. We all know the old urban myth about the carburetor that ran on water, snapped up and buried by the oil and automotive industries. No money to be made there!

Well, this is a real chance for an industry to try to kill a product that could do real serious damage to its profit margins. I mean, if the Internet becomes the preferred publishing venue - which it must - and you’ve got an “information appliance” that you can curl up in bed with and read in the dark because of its wonderful gently backlit screen...what part is there left to be played by the clunky, smelly, tree-murdering, traditional conglomerate publishing industry?

Indeed. Watch your back, Todd! And please don’t give in to the zillions of dollars they’re going to be offering to co-opt you. You’ll make multi-zillions more if you stick with the rest of us, the world, and you’ll be a great emancipator to boot. Not a bad appellation, that. u